Roger Martin-Fagg made five predictions for the economy at the AEO Conference 2008. This is the Client Director Henley Management College economist who has made many gloomy predictions in the past and said at the same event last year
there has been a huge party and we lost our senses. Now for the hangover.
But it was not all gloomy. Martin-Fagg also came up with suggestions as to what to do about it. First the predictions.
- UK economy to remain in recession until end of 2011 and the US until the end of 2010.
- UK economy to shrink by 6% over next three years or £50 billion.
- Asian economies to suffer far more they had imagined.
- UK banks to go to government for £60 billion of further funding by next summer, effectively nationalising them.
- UK savings ratio already going back up but needs to get to +4%. Each 1% represents £7 billion out of the economy.
What to do about it?
- “Take market share by being distinctive”. Expensive, top end and cheap, bottom end will do far better in any business sector. It is those in the middle who will suffer.
- “Invest in anything to do with old people”. Care homes, drugs for the elderly.
- “Invest in new kit”. Any company with money should continue to invest, particularly in innovative, new technology.
- “Don’t drop your prices, rather introduce small price increases”. Keep your margins up and put any price rises down to exchange rates or whatever.
- “Only start buying assets again when people still don’t think that we have reached the bottom of the recession”. He suggested not for another 18 months at least.
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Fresh Business Thinking // February 11, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Roger Martin-Fagg will be speaking at ‘R is for Recovery – not recession’ on 23rd April 2009 at Kempton Park Racecourse.
The ever changing economic climate and unprecedented upheavals in the financial sector and on the high street are prompting us all to reassess how we run our businesses.
The greatest strength of entrepreneurs is eternal optimism – however in today’s ‘bloodbath’ it can feel very lonely at the top.
R is for Recovery is a one-day event produced in association with The Academy for Chief Executives and aimed squarely at owners and directors from businesses employing between 5 and 250 people.
The event will explore via expert speakers:
• When will the ‘upturn’ come and what will be the signs?
• How you can be a ‘partner’ not a ‘supplier’
• What Google and the Internet can do to drive your business forward
• How to deal with stress and cope with change
• How to develop breakthrough ideas for you and your business
• Why ‘Your Health’ is as important as the health of your business
Kempton Park Racecourse, TW16 5AQ
Delegate price is £295.00
If you have a promotional discount code, you will be prompted to apply it on the booking page.
Price includes Masterclass, all course material and pre-reading, morning and afternoon tea/coffee and a networking buffet lunch
If you’d like to book more than 5 places then please email events@freshbusinessthinking.com or call Lucy on 0845 5000 328
Old joke may be unfair, but economists do differ…so what’s your view? | Vistage UK Blog // October 21, 2009 at 3:17 pm
[...] economic forecasting is easy to see – just look at the regular predictions we issue, prepared by Roger Martin-Fagg, one of the best practitioners [...]
MPC recruit joins Vistage expert in warning of W-shaped recession | Vistage UK Blog // November 2, 2009 at 10:33 am
[...] slide downwards, Mr Posen is aligning himself with Vistage UK’s top speaker and leading economist Roger Martin-Fagg, who predicted some time ago that the recession would be W-shaped, with a further period of decline [...]
Staffing up the New Economy | Vistage UK Blog // November 9, 2009 at 1:26 pm
[...] the peaks and troughs of the W-shaped recovery Vistage UK’s top speaker and leading economist Roger Martin-Fagg predicted, it seems many may do so carefully – perhaps using contract and temporary labour where [...]